Probability of secularism

You are alone in a jungle and suddenly you see a girl who has similar condition like you. You approach her by thinking to find some solution together to get out of this problem. When both of you are chatting and knowing each other, the rain starts and suddenly there is a thunderbolt in the sky.

Case1: What is the probability that the girl will kiss you?

There is a new state created in India. Hindus are as minority.

Case2: What is the probability that majority will accept Hindu as CM?

Which case has a higher probability of occurrence?

Parmit Kumar Singh